What's the scoop?

There's a lot of weird information flying around! In the same day last week I read in Business Week that Atlanta is the 10th fastest selling market in the country, AND then in the AJC I saw that the average home in Atlanta is taking 8 months to sell. How do you weed out the truth and what it means for you?

First, be careful about any news that isn't directly related to sales of properties comparable to your home. National statistics, and even local statistics, can be completely innapropriate for your home's unique situation.

Second, call me. I promise to be honest about what your home will sell for, and what it will take to get your home sold. I don't want either of us wasting our time trying to sell it if we can't get what you want for it. On the other hand, there's is absolutely no way to tell what your home will sell for until I look at comparable home SALES.

Third, read this article from the cheif ecomomist for the National Association of Realtors. Is he biased? Probably. Realtor's are naturally optimistic people! But, there's a lot of truth here, even if he's looking for the silver lining. He's debunking 10 real estate myths, and each myth is followed by a tip from frontdoor.com.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, debunks 10 commonly held beliefs about the current housing market, and FrontDoor.com offers 10 related tips.

1. Peak-to-trough home price declines to date have been about 20%. Wrong. Measurements of home price declines can be skewed depending on which homes in which markets are being measured. For instance, the Case-Shiller Index, which indicates that home prices are down 20%, is heavily skewed towards homes with subprime loans and other distressed home sales. These troubled homes have experienced a steeper decline than home prices in general, says Yun, adding that both government data based on loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and data from the National Association of Realtors suggest much more modest price declines. TIP: If you’re selling your home, the best thing to do is price your home right.

2. The much smaller number of new homes now under construction indicates the dismal outlook for the housing market. Wrong. The inventory of homes on the market is very high, so the last thing we need now is more new homes being built. Home builders have cut back sharply on production, which will help lower inventories and stabilize prices. The builders have done exactly what market forces are dictating under current conditions, Yun says. TIP: With many new homes completed but not sold, you can find great opportunities.

3. Even when the housing market recovers, home price growth will be only 4 to 6% per year — much less than historical average returns for the stock market. Most buyers put less than 20% of their own money into a home purchase; this borrowing power can translate to a greater rate of return. This is how Yun explains it: Home price appreciation historically has been about 1 to 2 percentage points higher than consumer price inflation, which translates into about 4 to 6% per year. But this growth rate cannot be viewed as a rate of return like the stock market. The reason is that most people do not buy a home for all cash, instead making a cash down payment and borrowing the rest. The leverage this borrowing creates can magnify returns — and losses. If price growth returns to historic norm, the price growth of 4% can easily turn into 20 to 30% rate of return if the home buyer makes a down payment of 10 or 20%. TIP: Get the fundamentals right when investing in real estate.

4. Impending baby boomer retirements and moves to small homes will cause a glut of homes on the market. Wrong. The first edge of the baby boomers has reached 60 years of age and the massive bulk of that generation will soon go into retirement, but far from trading down, many of these older homeowners are keeping their homes or moving to ones of comparable size. And even if more boomers do sell their larger homes in the years ahead, Yun points out, the rapidly growing U.S. population should absorb the inventory of existing homes on the market. TIP: Active seniors can find a retirement community that caters to their needs and interests.

5. The federal government takeover of secondary mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is a bailout that will cost taxpayers bundles. Too soon to tell, says Yun. It’s conceivable that taxpayers may have to cover some losses. It’s also possible that the government takeover will result in no loss of taxpayer dollars. Even if taxpayer funds are used, the bailout would be preferable to the global economic problems that would have occurred if Fannie and Freddie had gone belly up. TIP: Uncle Sam is “bailing out” homeowners facing foreclosure. Find out more about the Hope for Homeowners plan.

6. The Federal Reserve controls mortgage rates. Wrong. Yun explains: The Fed’s activities influence mortgage rates but don’t directly control them. What the Fed sets is a very short-term interest rate called the Federal Funds Rate. Mortgage rates are determined by global savings as well as credit spreads and inflationary pressures. Over the past two years, the Fed has raised the Fed Funds Rate to 5.5%, and then cut it deeply to around 2%. All the while, the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged in the 6 to 6.5% range. TIP: Today’s rates don’t look bad compared to the 10% we saw in the early ’90s and 17% in the ’80s.

7. It’s the wrong time to buy. Wrong. All real estate is local. For those who are financially and mentally ready to buy, there has never been a better time to be a buyer in many markets. An abundant selection of homes and historically low interest rates give buyers an edge over sellers. The recently passed $7,500 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers creates an added incentive. For someone with a long-time horizon, Yun says, there is very little worry about home values since homes have historically provided a solid foundation for wealth accumulation. TIP: Compare the pros and cons of renting vs. buying to see what makes sense for you.

8. It’s the right time for everyone to buy. No. All real estate is local, and everyone is unique. Someone who is not emotionally or financially ready should not be forced or induced to join the rank of homeowners, even when a market presents good buying opportunities. Potential homeowners clearly need to understand that the decision to move up to ownership requires sacrifices, like saving up for down payment and elevating their credit scores. Homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure serve no one’s interest, Yun adds. TIP: Take a good hard look at your financial status and create a homeowner’s budget to see if you’re ready to buy a home.

9. It’s a terrible time to sell. Wrong. In markets where home sales are picking up strongly, a seller can easily get an offer if the property is priced correctly. Also, Yun says, for those looking to trade-up, selling low on an existing home is more than offset by buying the new move-up home at a lower price. When the market recovers, home price appreciation on the traded-up home will bring bigger bang for the buck. TIP: Homebuyers want bargains in this market. If you price your home much lower than your competition, you might end up with a bidding war.

10. With the advent of the Internet, more and more homes are being sold by owners (FSBOs), and real estate practitioners are becoming obsolete. Nope. According to Yun, the share of home sellers who choose to go it alone when selling their home has actually decreased from about 20% in the late 1980s to about 12% today. Even after these sellers successfully complete a transaction, only 4 in 10 say they would sell their next home without the assistance of a real estate professional. TIP: You don’t have to sign a listing contract to talk to a Realtor. Ask family and friends for referrals and interview a few. You might even get some free advice.

What's the problem?

Interesting article. Every lender I talk to says, "I can still make loans! Have your buyers call me!" So if you're thinking about real estate but don't think you can buy now, please let me put you in touch with one of my favorite lenders so you'll know for sure.


Survey Shows Consumers Still Believe Real Estate Is a Good Investment

RISMEDIA, Oct. 22, 2008-OptHomeTM, an online resource for empowering homeowners, buyers and sellers to make smart decisions for all their homeowner needs, released comparison findings from consumer confidence surveys, conducted during Q2 and Q3 2008, that indicate the majority of consumers still believe in the value of real estate as an investment.

Fielding several hundred responses by homeowners in mid-June 2008, one-third (74%) of all respondents said they felt real estate was still a good investment. Comparatively, even with the collapse of Wall Street and the economic crisis making headline news, when the same group of consumers was surveyed again this month, results remained unchanged.

With the nation teetering towards recession, one thing remains clear-consumers still hold a fundamental belief in the importance of home ownership and the American dream which cannot be dampened by the greed of Wall Street. What is at issue for the consumer are the logistics of how to make that happen in today’s economy.

The OptHome survey also revealed that 74% of all buyers and sellers believe the number one challenge facing a home buyer today is obtaining a mortgage, compared to 61% in June-indicating a correlation between the 13% slide in consumer confidence and the global financial crisis as it relates to home ownership. Conversely, 41% of consumers believe the biggest challenge facing a home seller today is setting a realistic price for their home, down from 53% in June — followed by a growing concern they will have to sell their home for less than they owe on their mortgage (25% vs. 21%).

“Consumers are starting to come to grips with the challenges they’re facing, but there are some very bright spots in the real estate industry” said Dave Sears, OptHome co-founder and chief strategist. “Thanks to the Housing Bill, there are incentives for first time buyers - including a sizeable tax credit. And mortgage rates are expected to remain low to help resuscitate the industry, making it a good time for financially sound consumers to take advantage of the market’s surplus and very affordable prices.”

For more information, visit www.opthome.com.

What's up with this tax credit?

Thanks to James Williamson of Fairfield Mortgage for this summary of the Tax Credit program for 1st time home buyers*. To get in touch with James, click on the Fairfield Mortgage link in the upper left hand corner of my blog.

Time Is Running Out on the $7500 Tax Credit Created as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, the tax credit was enacted in July of this year to encourage home buying. It is only temporary. Retroactive to homes bought on or after April 9, 2008, the tax credit will expire in July, 2009. Here are the nuts and bolts you need to know about the credit:

How does it work?
The tax credit is actually a 15 year interest-free loan where the buyer will repay 1/15th of the loan each year via a tax credit against any Federal income taxes owed. Thus, with a $7500 limit, the maximum payment each year would be $500. The repayment begins two years after the credit is taken. Furthermore, if the homeowner sells the home during the 15 year period, he/she has to repay the balance of the loan from the profit of the home sale (if there is insufficient profit, then the remaining payback would be forgiven).

What's so great about a tax credit?
A tax credit is more valuable than a tax deduction, but most people don't know there's even a difference. A tax credit reduces the actual amount of tax due. A tax deduction only reduces the amount of taxable income. For example, if your client owed $3,000 in taxes for 2008, but qualified for the full $7,500 tax credit, it would cancel the entire amount he owes and still leave $4,500 which he would receive as a tax refund!

*Who qualifies for the tax credit? The credit is for first-time home buyers as well as anyone who hasn't owned a home in the past three years that can meet the income requirements. Single taxpayers can claim the full credit with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples up to $150,000. This credit is available for owner-occupied U.S. properties.

How much is the tax credit? The tax credit goes up to 10% of the purchase price of a new or existing home up to a limit of $7,500.